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US growth improves NY Fed data shows
May Empire State Manufacturing Survey shows this morning that business conditions improved 11 points to 17.1, new orders are higher to 8.3, shipments are up 18 points to 24.1 and the prices paid for...
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Weakening across much of US business in May
Richmond Fed’s National Economic Indicators show weakening across much of business in May. The ISM Business Survey Index, photo below, shows that only New Orders category has gained in May with all the...
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Banks cite stronger loan demand, Fed’s Beige Book
US economy signals moderate growth ahead with reduction in some cost pressures and noticeable uptick in loan demand says Fed’s Beige Book, a survey of anecdotal evidence on business activity.“Reports...
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Current recovery gap widening against norm, Fed
Current recovery is sluggish but the pace of sluggishness is increasing and so widening the gap against previous business cycle recoveries says Cleveland Fed.“Not only is the recent recession deeper...
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Manufacturing losing steam, Survey
June Empire State Manufacturing Survey shows that manufacturing activity is increasing but that the pace is slowing markedly.“The general business conditions index fell fifteen points, but remained...
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May manufacturing slowing, else steady
Latest Fed data on economy shows slowing manufacturing and a rather steady non manufacturing business (chart below).Inventories in manufacturing are down but up in the other for a rather flat...
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Warning Sign: Chicago Fed’s NAI declines steeply
Highly predictive Chicago Fed National Activity Index has posted a steep decline this morning plunging from the barely positive 0.08 in April to a worrisome -0.45 suggesting that things are grinding to...
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Public deleveraging costs 9.8 million jobs, view
The so-called recovery from the ongoing Great Recession has been a boon for corporate profits but a huge drag for employment, particularly in the government sector.For all of the attacks on the...
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“Modest” manufacturing growth, NY Fed
NY Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey shows a small increase in general business condition although new orders slipped into negative territory.“in a series of supplementary questions,...
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Earnings & the Japanese Trap
The latest earnings season produced a significant number of profit beats but also a noticeable drop in revenues suggesting sluggish demand and with the elevated share buybacks some say that this...
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National Economic Indicators: August 2012
Noticeable down-tick in manufacturing orders given steady production (51.3) results in up-tick in inventories (49) implying that supply of stuff increased relative to the demand for it.Data updated...
View ArticleHas he become the Arthur Laugher?
Arthur Laffer, the spirit patron of tax cuts who believes they are the solution to anything, is being laughed at by his own right-wing economists says Time.“Laffer seems to have forgotten, or ignored,...
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Chicago economy index up but below trend
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to –0.13 in July from –0.34 in June but the improvements in the indicator is still in the below trend territory.Production contributed the most in...
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Manufacturing shows rise in inventories
Manufacturing is showing a rise in inventories, a signal that things what they are producing are either not selling or are accumulated in order to be sold, a predicament that we will get a clearer look...
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Business conditions slide into negative, NY index
General business conditions index fell five points to -10.4, lowest level since November 2010 as measured by the monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank...
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Uncertainty costs US 1% on unemployment
Uncertainty about the future harms economic activity by lowering the aggregate demand because the private sector cuts back on spending, which hikes the unemployment causing output and inflation to...
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Odds of recession down despite weak data, Fed
Yield curve analysis suggests that the probability of a recession in August next year is 8.5%, which is down from July’s chance of 11.7% and June’s 9.7% says the Fed.“Using the yield curve to predict...
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Chicago Fed Index in recession territory
Chicago National Activity Index, NAI, has ticked down from -0.12 in July to -0.87 in August, a move that is significantly inside the recession territory of -0.7.The better news was the 3-month trailing...
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The economic week ahead…
Many important datapoints came out last week producing market swings but none of the data has been able to displace the market sentiment poised to go higher as many are convinced that we are headed to...
View ArticleCritical of IMF, economist calls for fiscal spending
Known for his advocacy of the so-called balance sheet recession, Richard Koo says that IMF is sketchy on the solution for the EU malaise, that it is succumbing to German economists who are betting...
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